Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?

Market shows a slight lean towards no strike by Iran in March.

The prediction market indicates a 51.9% probability that Iran will not strike Iraq again in March, slightly outweighing the 48.1% probability for a strike. The Pulse AI suggests an even lower likelihood for a strike at 43.6%, indicating a consensus that military action is less likely at this time.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards no strike in March.
• 2 The probabilities from the market and AI show a close alignment.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 The edge of -4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding to the unpredictability of the situation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezboll