Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?

Market indicates a 67% chance of Iran striking Iraq by April 30, 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards the possibility of Iran striking Iraq, with a 67% probability. However, the Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly lower likelihood at 59.5%, indicating that the NO side may be undervalued. The market's confidence level is moderate at 60 out of 100, reflecting some uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a strike by Iran.
• 2 The NO side appears undervalued by 7.5 points.
• 3 Moderate confidence level suggests some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 767 hours.
• 5 Geopolitical developments could significantly influence probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbol