Will Iran strike Iraq in March?

The market predicts a high likelihood of Iran striking Iraq in March.

With a market probability of 100% for a strike and a Pulse AI probability of 95.5%, there is strong consensus on this outcome. The confidence level of 85 suggests a robust belief in this prediction, although the edge indicates the market is fairly priced.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming sentiment for a strike in March.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market expectations.
• 3 Confidence level indicates strong belief in the predicted outcome.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with a minimal edge.
• 5 Potential geopolitical events could alter the current predictions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET(ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e.