Will Iran strike Israel again in March?

The market predicts a high likelihood of Iran striking Israel in March.

With a market probability of 100% for a strike and a Pulse AI probability of 95.5%, sentiment strongly favors the occurrence of this event. The edge of -4.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced, indicating a consensus on the likelihood of escalation in tensions between Iran and Israel.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly in favor of a strike.
• 2 Historical patterns show increased tensions between Iran and Israel during March.
• 3 The liquidity in this market reflects strong interest from participants.
• 4 The time to expiry is currently unknown, adding uncertainty to the prediction.
• 5 Confidence level of 85/100 indicates a robust consensus among participants.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezboll