Will Iran strike Israel by April 30, 2026?

The market strongly favors a strike by Iran on Israel by April 2026.

With a market probability of 100% for a strike by April 30, 2026, there is a clear consensus on this outcome. However, the Pulse AI gives a slightly lower probability of 94%, indicating some skepticism and suggesting that the NO side may be undervalued.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly in favor of a strike.
• 2 The Pulse AI indicates a notable divergence from market consensus.
• 3 The NO side is perceived as undervalued by 6 points.
• 4 Confidence in the prediction is relatively high at 85 out of 100.
• 5 Time remaining until expiry is significant at 781 hours.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbol