Will Iran strike Italy by March 31?

The market indicates a low probability of Iran striking Italy by March 31.

Current market probabilities suggest a strong consensus against the likelihood of an Iranian strike on Italy, with a 98.7% chance of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 3.3% for a 'YES', indicating that the sentiment is firmly against this scenario occurring.

• 1 Market probability for a strike is very low at 1.30%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 3.3% for a strike.
• 3 The edge of 2 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100, suggesting some uncertainty.
• 5 No specific time to expiry is provided, affecting urgency in decision-making.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezboll