Will Iran strike Jordan in March?

High probability of an Iranian strike on Jordan in March, with a notable undervaluation of the NO side.

The market indicates a strong belief that Iran will strike Jordan in March, with a probability of 76.50%. However, the Pulse AI suggests a lower likelihood at 69%, indicating that the NO side may be undervalued by 7.5 points. This discrepancy highlights potential uncertainty or differing interpretations of geopolitical tensions in the region.

• 1 Current sentiment leans heavily towards a strike occurring.
• 2 The NO side is seen as undervalued, suggesting potential market correction.
• 3 Geopolitical factors are highly fluid, impacting predictions.
• 4 Market confidence is moderate at 65 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to the market dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET(ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e.