Will Iran strike Khurais Field by March 31?

The market suggests a low likelihood of Iran striking the Khurais Field by March 31.

With a market probability of 24% for a strike and a Pulse AI probability of 29%, the consensus leans towards a 'NO' outcome. The market appears fairly priced, indicating a moderate level of confidence in these predictions.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a 'NO' outcome significantly.
• 2 The probabilities indicate a cautious outlook on military action.
• 3 Historical context shows low frequency of strikes in similar situations.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting balanced opinions.
• 5 The time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to the predictions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.