Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?

High probability of Iran striking Kuwait by April 2026, but NO side may be undervalued.

The market shows a strong belief that Iran will strike Kuwait by the specified date, with a 91% probability for YES. However, the NO side is considered undervalued by 7.5 points, suggesting potential for a reassessment of the situation. The confidence level is moderate at 65 out of 100, indicating some uncertainty in the prediction.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a YES outcome.
• 2 The NO probability suggests potential for market correction.
• 3 Historical context may influence perceptions of Iran's military actions.
• 4 Liquidity appears moderate, affecting market responsiveness.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with only 767 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbol