Will Iran strike Kuwait in March?

The market predicts a high likelihood of Iran striking Kuwait in March.

With a market probability of 100% for a strike, there is a strong consensus among participants. The Pulse AI probability supports this view at 95.5%, indicating a high level of confidence in the prediction despite a slight edge suggesting fair pricing.

• 1 Market consensus shows extreme confidence in a strike occurring.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 The edge indicates the market is fairly priced at this time.
• 4 High confidence rating suggests robust data backing the prediction.
• 5 Lack of time to expiry may lead to volatility in sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET(ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e.