Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by March 31?

Market suggests low likelihood of an Iranian strike on Leviathan Field by March 31.

The prediction market indicates a 22.5% probability of Iran striking the Leviathan Field by the end of March, with a stronger consensus against such an event. The Pulse AI slightly raises the probability to 27.5%, but both assessments suggest a low likelihood overall. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current sentiment leans heavily towards a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Market probability aligns closely with AI predictions, indicating consensus.
• 3 Historical context shows low frequency of Iranian strikes on offshore assets.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting moderate interest in this geopolitical event.
• 5 Uncertainty around time to expiry may affect market dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.