Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by March 31?

Market predicts a high likelihood of an Iranian strike on the Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by March 31.

The market shows a 100% probability for a strike by Iran on the Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery, indicating strong sentiment towards this outcome. The Pulse AI probability supports this with a 94% likelihood, though the NO side is considered undervalued by 6 points, suggesting potential market overconfidence. Overall confidence in this prediction stands at 80 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a strike by Iran.
• 2 The NO side is undervalued, indicating potential market overconfidence.
• 3 Pulse AI suggests a high likelihood but not absolute certainty.
• 4 Confidence level of 80/100 reflects significant but not unanimous belief.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to the prediction.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.