Will Iran strike Pakistan in March?

The market indicates a low probability of Iran striking Pakistan in March.

Current market probabilities suggest a strong consensus against the likelihood of an Iranian strike on Pakistan, with a 92.1% chance of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating that geopolitical tensions may not escalate to military action in this timeframe.

• 1 Market probability for a strike is low at 7.90%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market, suggesting consensus.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 The edge of 2 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 No imminent events are currently indicating a shift towards conflict.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET(ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e.