Will Iran strike Poland by April 30, 2026?

Low probability of Iran striking Poland by April 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 3.65% chance of Iran striking Poland by the specified date, with a strong consensus against this event occurring. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting limited expectations for such an escalation in geopolitical tensions.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong NO sentiment at 96.35%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly higher for YES at 7.15%.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is 773 hours, allowing for potential geopolitical developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbol