Will Iran strike Poland by March 31?

The market strongly favors that Iran will not strike Poland by March 31.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood that Iran will not strike Poland, with a 99.3% NO probability. The Pulse AI further supports this view, estimating a 97.3% chance of a NO outcome. The market appears fairly priced, reflecting a consensus against the likelihood of such an event occurring.

• 1 Market probability for NO is significantly higher than YES.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, favoring NO.
• 3 Current confidence level is moderate at 70/100.
• 4 The edge indicates the market is fairly priced at this time.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to future shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezboll