Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?

Market shows a 60% chance of Iran striking Qatar by April 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 60% probability of Iran striking Qatar by the end of April 2026, suggesting a significant level of concern regarding geopolitical tensions. The Pulse AI probability is slightly lower at 52.5%, indicating a potential undervaluation of the NO side. With 760 hours until expiry, the market remains sensitive to evolving geopolitical developments.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a potential strike.
• 2 The NO side appears undervalued by 7.5 points.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Geopolitical dynamics in the region are fluid and may impact predictions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbol