Will Iran strike Qatar in March?

The market indicates a strong belief that Iran will strike Qatar in March.

With a market probability of 100% for a strike by Iran on Qatar, sentiment is overwhelmingly in favor of this outcome. The Pulse AI probability supports this view at 95.5%, suggesting a high level of confidence in the prediction, though the edge indicates the market is fairly priced.

• 1 Market sentiment is extremely high for a strike in March.
• 2 The Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market expectations.
• 3 There is minimal perceived risk of a NO outcome.
• 4 Current geopolitical tensions may influence the situation.
• 5 The time to expiry for this prediction is currently unknown.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET(ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e.