Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by March 31?

The market indicates a lower likelihood of Iran striking Ras Laffan again by March 31.

Current market probability suggests a 33% chance of an Iranian strike on Ras Laffan Industrial City by March 31, while Pulse AI estimates a slightly higher probability of 38%. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100, indicating moderate uncertainty surrounding the event.

• 1 Market probability favors a 'NO' outcome at 67%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher likelihood for a 'YES' at 38%.
• 3 The edge of 5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60 suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding to the unpredictability.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.