Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by March 31?

The market predicts a 100% chance of Iran striking the Ruwais Refinery by March 31.

Current market sentiment indicates a strong belief that Iran will strike the Ruwais Refinery by the end of March, with a market probability of 100%. However, the Pulse AI suggests a slightly lower probability of 94%, indicating potential undervaluation of the NO side by 6 points. This discrepancy highlights the uncertainty surrounding geopolitical events and their outcomes.

• 1 Market shows extreme confidence in a strike occurring.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a more cautious outlook with a 94% probability.
• 3 The NO side is currently undervalued by 6 points.
• 4 Confidence level in the prediction is rated at 80 out of 100.
• 5 The time to expiry for this event remains unknown, adding uncertainty.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.