Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by March 31?

Market indicates a low probability of Iran striking Safaniya Field by March 31.

The prediction market shows a 23% chance of an Iranian strike on Safaniya Field, while Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 26.5%. With a confidence level of 65/100, the market appears fairly priced, indicating a general consensus against the likelihood of such an event occurring.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests moderate uncertainty.
• 3 Historical data shows low frequency of direct strikes in the region.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant interest.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding unpredictability to the market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.