Will Iran strike Syria in March?

The market indicates a low probability of Iran striking Syria in March.

Current market probabilities suggest an 86% likelihood that Iran will not strike Syria in March, with a 14% chance of a strike. The Pulse AI model slightly increases the probability of a strike to 16.5%, indicating some uncertainty but overall consensus against military action this month.

• 1 Market shows a strong preference for 'NO' at 86%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance of action at 16.5%.
• 3 The edge of 2.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding to the unpredictability of the situation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET(ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e.