Will Iran strike Turkey in March?

Low probability of Iran striking Turkey in March, with market favoring a NO outcome.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Iran will not strike Turkey in March, with a probability of 89.9% for a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for a YES outcome. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap indicates low expectations for conflict.
• 3 Historical context suggests limited direct military engagement.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable with no significant fluctuations.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET(ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e.