Will Iran strike Ukraine by April 30, 2026?

Low probability of Iran striking Ukraine by April 30, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 2.65% chance of Iran striking Ukraine by the specified date, with a strong consensus against such an event. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability at 6.15%, but overall sentiment remains firmly in favor of a 'NO' outcome.

• 1 Current market probability favors a 'NO' outcome significantly.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability, indicating some uncertainty.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.5.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100, reflecting some skepticism.
• 5 Time to expiry is over 767 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbol