Will Iran strike Ukraine by March 31?

The market indicates a low probability of Iran striking Ukraine by March 31.

With a market probability of 1.90% for a strike and a Pulse AI probability of 3.9%, the consensus leans heavily towards a 'NO' outcome. The edge of 2 suggests that the market is fairly priced, reflecting a moderate level of confidence in this assessment.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Geopolitical stability in the region is a key factor.
• 3 Historical context shows low likelihood of Iran engaging in conflict with Ukraine.
• 4 Market liquidity appears sufficient for accurate pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is unclear, impacting urgency in decision-making.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezboll