Will Iran strike Yemen in March?

Low probability of Iran striking Yemen in March, with market favoring a NO outcome.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of Iran striking Yemen in March, with a NO probability of 97.05%. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 95.05%, indicating that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge towards the NO outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probabilities from the market and AI are closely aligned.
• 3 Historical context suggests low likelihood of strikes in March.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current pricing.
• 5 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the NO prediction.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET(ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e.