Will Is This Thing On? win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?

The market overwhelmingly predicts 'No' for Is This Thing On? winning Best Adapted Screenplay.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Is This Thing On? winning Best Adapted Screenplay, with a 100% probability for 'No'. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of a win at just 1%. This suggests that the film is not considered a strong contender in this category.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors 'No' at 100%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely, indicating low confidence in a win.
• 3 The edge of 1 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 85/100 indicates a high certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to potential shifts.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.