Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

Israel has a high probability of advancing in the first Eurovision Semi-Final.

The market indicates a strong likelihood of Israel advancing, with a 92% probability. However, the Pulse AI suggests a slightly lower confidence at 84.5%, indicating potential undervaluation of the NO side by 7.5 points. This discrepancy may reflect uncertainty or changing dynamics as the event approaches.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Israel's advancement.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a lower probability, suggesting some market skepticism.
• 3 The edge indicates the NO side may be undervalued, presenting a potential opportunity.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate, reflecting some uncertainty in the outcome.
• 5 Time remaining until the event could influence market adjustments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.