Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?

The market indicates a low probability of Israel annexing territory by June 30.

Current market probabilities suggest an 11.90% chance of Israel annexing territory by the end of June, with a stronger consensus against it. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a slightly higher probability of 15.4%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with moderate confidence.

• 1 Market probability shows strong skepticism about annexation.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment but is slightly more optimistic.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 65 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time until expiry is substantial, allowing for potential geopolitical shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory between July 22, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.

Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.