Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?

Low probability of Israel annexing Gaza by June 2026.

The prediction market indicates an 8% chance of Israel annexing Gaza territory by June 30, 2026, with a strong consensus against such an outcome. The Pulse AI probability slightly increases this estimate to 11.5%, but both figures suggest a prevailing belief that annexation is unlikely in the near future.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Political stability in Israel contributes to low annexation likelihood.
• 3 Historical context shows limited precedent for annexation in similar situations.
• 4 Market liquidity appears adequate for current trading activity.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for potential geopolitical developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.

Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.