Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?

Low market probability indicates skepticism about a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of Israel launching a major ground offensive in Gaza by the end of March, with a 94% probability for 'NO.' The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for 'YES.' This suggests a general expectation that such an offensive is unlikely in the near term.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probabilities suggest a stable expectation of no major offensive.
• 3 Historical context shows limited instances of rapid military escalation in similar situations.
• 4 Market liquidity appears adequate, supporting the current pricing.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.