Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility?

Market suggests a slight chance of targeting the Fordow facility, but AI analysis leans towards no action.

The prediction market indicates a 52% probability of Israel or the US targeting the Fordow nuclear facility, while the AI model suggests a lower likelihood at 44.5%. The edge of -7.5 points indicates that the NO side may be undervalued, reflecting a potential misalignment in market sentiment.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a slight chance of action.
• 2 AI analysis suggests a higher probability of no targeting.
• 3 The NO side appears undervalued by 7.5 points.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry for the market is currently unknown.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.

U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.