Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026?

Low probability of Israel striking 10 countries in 2026, with market favoring a NO outcome.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of Israel striking 10 countries in 2026, with a 99.45% probability for NO. The Pulse AI also supports this view, indicating a significantly lower probability for YES at 4.05%. Overall, the market appears to be fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability for YES is notably low at 0.55%.
• 3 Pulse AI suggests a slight chance for YES at 4.05%.
• 4 Market confidence is moderate at 60/100.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 7077 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursio