Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?

The market strongly favors that Israel will not strike 13 countries in 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood (99.85%) that Israel will not engage in military strikes against 13 countries in 2026. The Pulse AI also supports this view, with a significantly lower probability of 3.65% for a YES outcome. The confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate certainty in these predictions.

• 1 Market probability shows overwhelming confidence in a NO outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI probability indicates a slight chance for a YES outcome.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential geopolitical shifts.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursio