Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?

The market suggests a low probability of Israel striking four countries in 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that Israel will not strike four countries in 2026, with a NO probability of 77.05%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher YES probability of 26.45%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap suggests a consensus against military action.
• 3 Historical context may influence perceptions of Israel's military engagements.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, indicating consistent market participation.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for potential geopolitical developments to unfold.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursio