Will Israel strike Gaza on March 5, 2026?

The market strongly predicts no Israeli strike on Gaza on March 5, 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a 100% expectation that Israel will not strike Gaza on the specified date. The Pulse AI also supports this view, with a low probability of a strike at 2%. Overall confidence in this prediction is high, suggesting stability in the geopolitical context leading up to the date.

• 1 Market shows a strong consensus against a strike, indicating low perceived risk.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, reinforcing the prediction.
• 3 High confidence level suggests stability in geopolitical conditions.
• 4 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts, but current sentiment is firm.
• 5 No recent indicators suggest a change in the likelihood of conflict.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed b