Market shows a slight lean towards military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026.
The market indicates a 59% probability for military action by Israel in Gaza, suggesting a prevailing sentiment towards potential conflict. However, the Pulse AI probability stands at an even 50%, indicating uncertainty and a lack of consensus. The edge of -9 points for the NO side suggests that it may be undervalued relative to the current market sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil between market creation and 11:59 PM on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/news