The market is evenly split on military action in Gaza by Israel on March 30, 2026.
Current probabilities indicate a slight lean towards 'NO' regarding military action in Gaza, with market sentiment at 51.5% for 'NO' and 48.5% for 'YES'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar outlook, suggesting a higher likelihood of no action. The edge of -4.5 indicates that the market is fairly priced given the current confidence level of 65 out of 100.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil between market creation and 11:59 PM on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/news