High probability suggests strong expectation of Israeli military action in Lebanon by March 2026.
The market indicates a 98.25% probability that Israel will take military action in Lebanon on March 19, 2026, reflecting significant sentiment towards this outcome. The Pulse AI probability of 90.75% further supports this view, although the NO side appears undervalued by 7.5 points, indicating potential market mispricing. With a confidence level of 60/100 and 293 hours until expiry, the situation remains fluid and subject to change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a s