Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?

Israel has a low probability of winning Eurovision 2026 according to the market.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Israel winning Eurovision 2026, with a probability of only 5.30%. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 7.3%, indicating that the market is fairly priced. The confidence level of 75/100 suggests moderate certainty in this assessment.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Israel's historical performance in Eurovision may influence perceptions.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 The edge of 2 indicates a minor discrepancy that suggests fair pricing.

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.