Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?

The market strongly favors that Ben Gurion Airport will not reopen by March 7.

With a market probability of 99.95% for 'NO', there is a significant consensus that Ben Gurion Airport will remain closed until after March 7. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar outlook, albeit with a slightly higher probability for reopening. This suggests a high level of confidence in the current assessment of the situation.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the airport remaining closed.
• 2 The high confidence level indicates strong consensus among participants.
• 3 Historical context suggests prolonged closures in similar situations.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent trading activity.
• 5 Time pressure is limited with 392 hours until the deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel's Ben Gurion Airport (TLV) opens to any departures or arrivals between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" arrivals and departures from TLV must be open to scheduling by Israeli citizens or the general public and at least one civilian departure or arrival must have occurred. These conditions must be true at the same time. An announcement that TVA has reopened alone will not qualify.

Rescue, repatriation, evacuation, military, humanitarian, or other special-purpose flights that are not bookable by the general public or not considered ordinary civilian flights will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be information from TVA and the Israel Airports Authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.