Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?

The market strongly favors 'NO' for the film winning Best Original Screenplay.

Current market probabilities indicate a significant belief that 'It Was Just an Accident' will not win Best Original Screenplay, with a NO probability of 99.55%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for a YES outcome at 2.45%, but overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap suggests limited confidence in a YES win.
• 3 Historical trends indicate low chances for similar films in this category.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable with minimal fluctuations.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to the predictions.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.