Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?

Italy has a low probability of winning Eurovision 2026 at 1.65%.

The market indicates a strong belief that Italy will not win Eurovision 2026, with a probability of 98.35% for 'NO'. The current pricing suggests that the market is fairly balanced, with no significant edge identified.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' for Italy winning.
• 2 Italy's historical performance in Eurovision may influence perceptions.
• 3 Market pricing indicates no significant edge, suggesting stability.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 1636 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Low liquidity may affect the responsiveness of the market to new information.

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.