Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Jacob Elordi has a low probability of winning Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Jacob Elordi winning Best Supporting Actor, with a 98.95% probability of NO. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a low likelihood of his victory based on current data and market conditions.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors a NO outcome for Elordi.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES, but still low overall.
• 3 Current sentiment indicates limited support for Elordi's nomination.
• 4 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry is 128 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor.

If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.