Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

Low probability of Japan sending warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Japan sending warships through the Strait of Hormuz, with a 93.85% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that current geopolitical dynamics do not favor such a military deployment.

• 1 Market probability for 'YES' is low at 6.15%, indicating skepticism.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 9.65%, suggesting some uncertainty.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 indicates the market is fairly priced relative to AI predictions.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 shows moderate certainty in the current assessment.
• 5 Time to expiry is 752 hours, allowing for potential geopolitical developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.

For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.

Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.

Qualifying confirmations include statements such as off