Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31?

Market indicates low probability of Jeff Bezos being the richest person by year-end.

The prediction market shows a 1.6% chance of Jeff Bezos being the richest person on December 31, with a strong consensus against it at 98.4%. The market appears fairly priced with no edge, reflecting a high level of confidence in the current probabilities.

• 1 Current sentiment strongly favors 'NO' on Bezos's wealth status.
• 2 Market probability suggests low confidence in Bezos regaining the top spot.
• 3 Historical trends show fluctuations in billionaire rankings can be volatile.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, indicating no major shifts in trader sentiment.
• 5 Time until expiry allows for potential changes but current outlook remains unchanged.

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.