Will Jennifer Lawrence win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

The market strongly favors that Jennifer Lawrence will not win Best Actress.

Current market probabilities indicate a 100% expectation that Jennifer Lawrence will not win the Best Actress award, with a minimal 2% chance suggested by Pulse AI. This consensus suggests a strong belief in her lack of competitiveness for the award at this time. With 80 hours remaining until the event, the market appears to be fairly priced based on current sentiment and analysis.

• 1 Market probability shows overwhelming confidence in a NO outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slight chance of YES, indicating some uncertainty.
• 3 Current sentiment reflects a strong belief against Lawrence winning.
• 4 The edge of 2 indicates the market is likely fairly priced.
• 5 With 80 hours to expiry, time pressure may influence last-minute shifts.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Actress.

If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.