Will Joachim Trier win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

Joachim Trier has a low chance of winning Best Director at the Oscars.

The prediction market indicates a 0.20% probability of Joachim Trier winning Best Director, with a strong consensus against it. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability at 2.2%, but overall sentiment remains firmly in favor of a 'NO' outcome. With 141 hours until the event, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 99.8%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a marginally higher probability for 'YES' at 2.2%.
• 3 The edge of 2 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 indicates moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 141 hours remain until the Oscars, allowing time for potential shifts in sentiment.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed director who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Director.

If a director is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Director when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated director whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.