Will Joel Dahmen win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?

The market strongly predicts Joel Dahmen will not win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Current market probabilities indicate a 0% chance of Joel Dahmen winning the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational, with a strong consensus against his victory. The Pulse AI also supports this view, assigning a 1% probability to his win, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with high confidence.

• 1 Market probability shows overwhelming confidence in a NO outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating low expectations for Dahmen.
• 3 The edge of 1 suggests the market is accurately reflecting current perceptions.
• 4 High confidence level of 90/100 indicates strong consensus among participants.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, which may affect future market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard tournament.

If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No".

If an unlisted player wins the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard tournament this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If no winner is announced by March 14, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).