Will Jonathan Bailey win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Jonathan Bailey is highly unlikely to win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Jonathan Bailey winning Best Supporting Actor, with a 100% probability of NO. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, suggesting only a minimal chance of 2% for a YES outcome, indicating that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming confidence in a NO outcome for Bailey.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating low likelihood of a win.
• 3 Current odds suggest that Bailey's chances are not favored by industry insiders.
• 4 The market appears stable, with little liquidity indicating a strong consensus.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, limiting potential shifts in sentiment.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor.

If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.