Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?

Market indicates low likelihood of Jordan striking Iran by April 30.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of Jordan striking Iran, with a 94.5% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a low probability of military action in this timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap indicates a strong consensus among participants.
• 3 Historical context suggests low frequency of Jordanian military action against Iran.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current price levels.
• 5 Time remaining until expiry may limit the impact of sudden developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.